
“The Manhattan market came roaring back to life in the fourth quarter, fueled by a dip in mortgage rates and renewed confidence following the election. Buyers came off the sidelines driving a 3% year-over-year increase in sales and a remarkable 22% jump in signed contracts, one of the biggest annual gains in over a decade.”– Pamela Liebman, Corcoran’s President & CEO
Should you sell or should you buy in 2025. Read on for my market insights. Here’s what happened during Manhattan’s fourth quarter of 2024 according to the Corcoran Report:
- The Manhattan market roared back to life in the Fourth Quarter of 2024. Lower prices, a dip in mortgage rates, and a bullish economy, caused sales to surge. The number of sales rose 3% annually to 2,686 closings, but the major difference was in signed contracts, which jumped 22% YOY, the fourth most significant annual gains since 2012.
- Better value has been the most important contributor the rebound in demand, and in the Fourth Quarter of 2024, average and median price per square foot fell YOY, down 2% to $1,811 and 5% to $1,275, respectively. Median price fell annually to $1.100M, the lowest fourth-quarter figure in five years, due to growth in the market share of smaller apartments versus a year ago.
- In Fourth Quarter 2024, the below-average quarter for new listings combined with strong contract activity and very few new development introductions to drive active listings to their lowest fourth-quarter figure in nine years. Listed inventory fell 8% YOY, as only 5,900 listings were active in mid-December.
The Corcoran Report leaves no doubt that the Manhattan residential real estate market is thriving. After two years of gradually declining prices, the combination of a mortgage rate dip and a robust economy spurred buyers back into action. Transaction volume has surged, bringing the kind of dynamic energy that matches New York City’s unique rhythm. Optimism is in the air, and the momentum is expected to continue into 2025.
Here’s why:
Signed contract levels provide the clearest snapshot of today’s market. Because closings typically lag contract signings, closed sales act as a rearview mirror, while signed contracts point to the road ahead. A 22% year-over-year increase in signed contracts is a strong signal of renewed demand.
Pricing Trends
Manhattan’s pricing is at a cyclical low after two years of slow, steady declines. The average and median price per square foot have dropped year-over-year for seven consecutive quarters—marking the longest stretch of declines in two decades. The level of discount you can expect from the market’s prior high depends on the apartment size and location.
Median prices by bedroom size range from $265,000 for a co-op studio in Northern Manhattan to $12.4 million for a three-bedroom new development in Midtown. Of course, these are median figures. For instance, we currently have a listing for a studio in East Harlem priced at $185,000, while Central Park Tower offers a penthouse for $59 million. Understanding the nuances of pricing takes more than averages; it requires a real estate partner with deep market knowledge who can help you seize opportunities.
Inventory Insights
Inventory is at its lowest fourth-quarter level in nearly a decade, with just 5,900 active listings by mid-December 2024. Buyers are adapting to current mortgage rates, but better value remains a key motivator. Homes priced between $1 million and $5 million saw inventory fall by 9%, while homes priced above $5 million experienced a 14% drop. Two-bedroom homes are in particularly short supply.
Interestingly, resale co-ops—often considered the best value in Manhattan—are the only property type to show year-over-year inventory declines across all price points. This reflects buyers’ growing preference for value.
New Development Outlook
The new development pipeline remains limited, which could exacerbate inventory shortages in 2025. New development listings fell 11% year-over-year to just 850 units last quarter, with only 110 units launched—representing a staggering 74% annual decline.
Submarket Highlights
- East Side: Active listings fell 15% annually to 1,267 units, the sharpest decline of any submarket. Median sales prices for three-bedroom resale co-ops and condos are now surprisingly similar.
- West Side: Listings dropped to 938 units, the lowest fourth-quarter figure since 2016. A significant decline in Billionaire’s Row sales caused the average price per square foot to fall by 24%, though it remains above the market average.
- Midtown: Robust contract activity helped reduce inventory by 6%. Homes here averaged 123 days on market, slightly above the citywide average of 116 days.
- Downtown: Active listings fell to their lowest fourth-quarter level since 2015, with resale condo and co-op closings increasing over 2023. New development sales declined as inventory tightened.
- Financial District & Battery Park City: This submarket saw a rare year-over-year decline in closings, likely due to higher prices. Larger luxury developments, such as 1 Wall Street, are now catering to high-end buyers over value-seekers.
- Upper Manhattan: Condo resales jumped 30%, pushing overall closings up 5% year-over-year. However, the average price per square foot fell 14%, and active listings rose by 7%, driven primarily by resale condos.
Key Q4 2024 Stats from the Corcoran Report:
- Closed Sales: 2,686, up 3% year-over-year but down 14% quarter-over-quarter.
- Contracts Signed: 2,904, up 22% year-over-year and 12% quarter-over-quarter.
- Median Price: $1.1M, down 4% year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter.
- Inventory: 5,900, down 8% year-over-year and 9% quarter-over-quarter.
- Days on Market: 116, down 1% year-over-year but up 6% quarter-over-quarter.
- Average PPSF: $1,811, down 2% year-over-year but up 4% quarter-over-quarter.
The Manhattan market’s rebound is full of opportunities for buyers and sellers alike. Whether you’re looking to maximize your investment as a seller or secure a home at a strategic price as a buyer, this is the time to act.
Let’s discuss how I can help you achieve your real estate goals in 2025!
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