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Q3 Market Report

Data speaks

Is now a good time to buy NYC real estate? The Manhattan Q3 quarterly report, which was largely good news, revealed some bright spots with only a few potential challenges.

I’ve broken them down for you so you don’t have to:

Bright Spots

• Closed sales up 2% year-over-year, 6% from last quarter
• Days on market down to 108 (2% YOY, 18% from last quarter)
• Signed contracts up 8%, fastest growth since 2021

These indicators suggest a resurgence in buyer interest, possibly due to perceived value in the market and recent interest rate cuts.

Potential Challenges

• Signed contracts down 20% year-over-year
• Possible slow Q4 due to Presidential race, global insecurity, and holiday season

The results indicate how strong the Spring market was. However, the upcoming election and global economic uncertainties may cause some buyers to hesitate in the short term.

Inventory

• 6,477 listings (unchanged YOY, 14% drop from Q2)
• New listings down 34% from Q2
• Active new development listings at lowest since Q4 2016

Co-op, condo and new developments all saw inventory drops compared to last quarter. Active new development listings fell 5% annually adding only 887 units which is the lowest amount since Q4 2016.

The lack of new inventory, particularly in new developments, is creating a tighter market in some segments — and frustration among some buyers who are in the market ready to purchase.

Pricing

Pricing:
• Average price/sq ft: $1,734 (down 6% YOY)
• Median price/sq ft: $1,271 (down 9% YOY)
• Median price: $1,150,000 (up 1%)
• Average price: $2,039,000 (up 1%)

This is the six straight Manhattan price per square foot decline on a yearly basis, which hasn’t happened since the mid-1990s. The continued decline in price per square foot indicates ongoing value opportunities for buyers.

However, the market shows different trends across various property types:

Resale Co-ops:
• Sales up 9% YOY
• Median price rose from $835,000 to $845,000 (quarterly)
• Average price increased from $1,330,000 to $1,335,000

The increase in co-op sales underscores buyers’ focus on value, as co-ops typically trade at a discount to condos.

Resale Condos:
• Sales up 6% quarterly for price points over $500,000 in all but one submarket
• Median price dropped 6% to $1,420,000
• Average price decreased 10% to $2,320,000

Resale condos showed significant price drops, offering buyers substantial value opportunities.

New Developments:
• Sales down 27% annually (9th consecutive quarter of decrease)
• Average price increased to $4,115,000 (up 18% from last quarter, 17% YOY)

The paradoxical increase in new development prices despite lower sales may be due to limited inventory and fewer new projects coming to market, pushing prices higher for available units.

 

Neighborhood Highlights

Upper West Side

• Sales up 4%
• Median price up 5% to $1,255,000

A 20% increase in new development closings above 86th Street contributed to the price increase.

Inventory is low in this neighborhood, down 10%, which could drive prices back up again.

If you are looking to purchase in this neighborhood, here is the approximate median price range you can expect:

Studio: $450,000-$685,000.

One bedroom: $750,000 – $1,233,000.

Two bedrooms: $1,325,000 – $2,325,000

Three plus bedrooms: $2,673,000 – $5,800,000

EAST SIDE

• Sales up 6%
• Average price/sq ft down 23% to $1,424

The significant drop in price per square foot is partly due to fewer high-end sponsor sales compared to last year.

Inventory levels have remained stable, with a slight 2% increase year-over-year.

Approximate median price ranges:

Studio: $425,000 – $650,000
One bedroom: $725,000 – $1,150,000
Two bedrooms: $1,275,000 – $2,200,000
Three plus bedrooms: $2,500,000 – $5,500,000

MIDTOWN

• Sales up 6%
• Median price up 5% to $891,000

Two sales at the Aman building over $10,000 per square foot drove up the average price per square foot by 41% to $1,904.

Inventory has decreased by 8% compared to last year, potentially leading to more competitive bidding.

Approximate median price ranges:

Studio: $400,000 – $625,000
One bedroom: $700,000 – $1,100,000
Two bedrooms: $1,200,000 – $2,100,000
Three plus bedrooms: $2,300,000 – $5,000,000

DOWNTOWN

• Sales down 3%
• Median price down 5% to $1,496,000

For the first time since 2015, Downtown didn’t see a single closing over $25 million in Q3, indicating a cooling in the ultra-luxury segment.

Inventory is up 5% year-over-year, offering more options for buyers.

Approximate median price ranges:

Studio: $550,000 – $800,000
One bedroom: $850,000 – $1,400,000
Two bedrooms: $1,500,000 – $2,700,000
Three plus bedrooms: $3,000,000 – $6,500,000

FINANCIAL DISTRICT

• Sales down 15%
• Average price/sq ft down 8% to $1,263

A 60% drop in sponsor sales due to declining inventory boosted resale condo and co-op sales to double digits compared to last year.

Inventory has decreased by 12% year-over-year, which may lead to price stabilization.

Approximate median price ranges:

Studio: $500,000 – $750,000
One bedroom: $800,000 – $1,300,000
Two bedrooms: $1,400,000 – $2,500,000
Three plus bedrooms: $2,800,000 – $6,000,000

UPPER MANHATTAN

• Sales up 17%
• Price/sq ft up 10%
• Inventory up 13%

Active listings rose more than any other Manhattan neighborhood, climbing 13%, but this also increased days on market by 7% to 124 days. The market share of closings over $1 million was driven by sales at Claremont Hall, a new luxury development in Morningside Heights.

Approximate median price ranges:

Studio: $350,000 – $550,000
One bedroom: $550,000 – $900,000
Two bedrooms: $800,000 – $1,500,000
Three plus bedrooms: $1,300,000 – $3,000,000

FAQs

Is Now a Good Time to Buy NYC Real Estate?

The market shows signs of recovery with increased sales and buyer engagement. However, pricing remains buyer-friendly. For those considering a purchase, the current value-oriented market may present good opportunities, especially with the potential for future price increases if supply grows and interest rates continue to drop.

As always, potential buyers should consult with a local real estate professional to navigate the nuances of specific neighborhoods and properties.

Which Manhattan neighborhoods are seeing the most activity?

Upper Manhattan saw the largest increase in sales, up 17% year-over-year. The Upper West Side, East Side, and Midtown all experienced sales increases of 4-6%. However, Downtown and the Financial District saw decreases in sales. Each neighborhood has its own unique market dynamics, so it’s important to look at specific area trends.

How has inventory changed across Manhattan?

Inventory trends vary widely:
• Overall Manhattan: 6,477 listings (unchanged YoY, -14% from Q2)
• Upper West Side: -10% (potential price increase)
• Financial District: -12%
• Upper Manhattan: +13% (largest increase)
• Downtown: +5% YoY

Julia Boland
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