The Manhattan real estate market roared through the second quarter of 2025 with its strongest performance in years—defying higher interest rates, NYC election-year uncertainty, and economic headwinds. But this was not a one-size-fits-all rally. Beneath the headline numbers, the market is telling a layered, revealing story.
Whether you're planning to buy, sell, or just keeping tabs, Q2 delivered clear signals: confidence in NYC has returned, inventory is tightening, and price performance is increasingly split by location, apartment size, and price point.
Key Takeaways at a Glance
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Closed sales rose 5% year-over-year to 3,257, the strongest Q2 since 2022
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Signed contracts increased for the fifth consecutive quarter, up 3% annually
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Median price rose 3% to $1.240 million—a post-pandemic high
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Inventory declined 2% year-over-year, marking four straight quarters of shrinking supply
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Days on market dropped 8% to 120 days—the lowest since early 2022
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Sales under $3 million rose 2%; sales over $3 million jumped 22%
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Studio prices increased across nearly all segments and neighborhoods
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Large apartments and the luxury sector saw strong demand, despite slightly higher prices
What’s Driving the Market?
Fewer Listings, Higher Stakes
While new listings technically increased versus Q2 2024, over 2,500 listings were pulled from the market last quarter. Combined with fewer new development launches—just 253 units, a 12 percent drop year-over-year—this drove overall inventory down to 7,362. That's a full year of quarter-over-quarter supply declines.
This shrinking supply is especially pronounced at the high end. Inventory over $3 million dropped 12 percent year-over-year—the largest decrease since late 2021. Meanwhile, listings under $3 million rose only slightly, and the only segment to see notable growth was studios, up 9 percent.
New development inventory continued its two-year downward trend, falling 13 percent annually to 818 active listings. Developers are bringing new residences to market more slowly and selectively. Other condo developers are choosing to rent rather than sell at a discount.
Price Trends and Buyer Behavior
The median price rose to $1.240 million, up 3 percent year-over-year and the highest since before the pandemic. The increase was driven by a shift in closing activity toward larger apartments and more expensive neighborhoods.
The average price per square foot climbed to $1,856—just shy of the post-pandemic high of $1,860. Studio prices rose almost across the board, reflecting renewed demand at the entry level. Some of this may be driven by office return mandates—prompting those who decamped to the suburbs or country homes to reestablish a city foothold. Others may be one-bedroom buyers shifting downward for affordability in order to escape high rental prices.
Meanwhile, larger apartments and properties over $3 million saw the biggest jump in demand. These homes tend to be long-term holds—7 to 10 years—signaling that high-end buyers are committing to New York for the foreseeable future.
For context:
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Co-op median price: $850,000
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Condo median price: $1.6 million
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New development median price: $2.4 million
The value gap between co-ops and condos remains stark. One could argue that co-op pricing is being held back by restrictive policies around post-closing liquidity, financing, and subletting. Loosening those rules could unlock real appreciation potential.
Neighborhood Snapshots
Downtown was the standout performer:
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Sales rose 12%
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Median price increased 8% to $1.6 million
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Average price per square foot climbed to $2,096
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Market share of sales over $3 million reached near-record levels at 27% while
Inventory held steady at 2,052 active listings.
Upper Manhattan cooled off:
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Sales declined 5%
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Average price per square foot fell 6% to $919
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Only 220 closings—third slowest Q2 since 2009
Having lived and worked in Harlem since 2004, this feels reminiscent of the post-recession years. Sellers today with larger apartments who are motivated are cutting prices significantly. I’ve seen buildings that once commanded $1,300 per square foot now trade closer to $1,000—a clear opportunity for strategic buyers.
East Side was Manhattan’s only submarket with a meaningful inventory decline, down 10 percent for the second straight quarter. Could the buzz around hot new restaurants and retail be prompting Downtown parents to move closer to the Upper East Side's deep bench of private schools?
Financial District and Battery Park City saw a 12% drop in sales and a 7% increase in inventory. Many developers are now opting to rent out unsold units rather than sell at a discount.
West Side sales rose 7% overall, driven almost entirely by new development closings. Trophy sales included 111 West 57th Street PH2 at $46.9 million and Central Park Tower 116 at $45.9 million—each closing around $6,500 per square foot.
Midtown posted an 11% increase in sales, largely fueled by price reductions at sponsor units in new developments.
What This Means for Buyers
Yes, prices are rising—but not uniformly. While luxury product is moving quickly, the sub-$3 million segment remains highly price-sensitive. Studio and co-op buyers still have opportunities if they know where to look and can move decisively. Those seeking larger apartments who are feeling priced out are likely to begin searching above 96th Street.
What This Means for Sellers
If you’ve been waiting for a sign to list, this is it. Demand is strong, and supply is constrained—especially in prime buildings and neighborhoods. With fewer properties launching and others quietly withdrawn, serious buyers are circling.
But strategy is everything. Pricing correctly, presenting the property effectively, and timing your launch are all essential to maximizing your return.
Looking Ahead: Q3 and the Politics of Price
As we move into the second half of 2025, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the growing divide between properties above and below $3 million along with the mortgage rates. It’s no surprise that New York’s shifting political winds—most recently the mayoral primary upset—are being shaped by this economic split.
Housing is a central issue in this election cycle. While every stakeholder—from buyers and sellers to city officials—recognizes that something needs to change, fast fixes rarely lead to smart solutions. What we need is long-term planning that protects opportunity without disrupting stability.
Let’s Talk Strategy
If you're thinking about buying, selling, or simply navigating your next real estate move in Manhattan, I'm here to help you separate headlines from actual opportunities.
Contact me anytime or explore my latest insights at TheBolandTeamNYC.com.
All data and market insights are sourced from The Corcoran Report: Manhattan Q2 2025.
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