Every year around this time, the conversation turns to the "summer slowdown", a seasonal lull when deals thin out, sellers pull listings until fall, and buyers head to the Hamptons. This year, that narrative doesn't hold up. I was reminded of this just recently, talking with a seller on Park Avenue who was considering waiting until fall. Having sold a comparable property last summer that closed above asking, we decided to move forward and list soon. Manhattan is heading into summer with genuine momentum, and the data behind it tells a more interesting story than the headlines suggest.
Yes, there's a new pied-à-terre tax creating uncertainty at the top of the market. Yes, borrowing costs remain elevated. But demand is holding firm, inventory is tight across almost every segment, and buyers are acting faster than they were a year ago. The market isn't frictionless but it continues to move ahead.
Spring ended stronger than expected
May was the most active month for signed contracts in three years, with 1,190 condo and co-op deals across the borough. That number is worth sitting with for a moment: it wasn't just better than last May, it was better than average. It was 8% above the ten-year benchmark for the month. And it came at the end of a spring selling season, when markets typically begin to wind down in other markets.
| Contracts signed in May | 1,190 |
| vs. May 2025 | +12% |
| vs. 10-year May average | +8% |
| Average days on market | 102 days (-9% YoY) |
Speed is picking up too. The average property spent 102 days on market in May, about nine percent less than a year ago and sixteen percent below the historical norm for this time of year. Buyers are not leisurely browsing; when something is priced right, they move on it. The reverse is equally true: sellers who push the market see their listings linger and ultimately close for less than they would have achieved with accurate pricing from the start.
The breadth of the strength matters as well. Every price segment under $5M posted year-over-year gains. Even above $5M, where contracts dipped slightly, volume still ran 10% above the historical May average. This isn't a market being carried by one hot pocket; it's broad-based activity across the borough. Demand for New York City real estate remains strong.
Below $3M: the engine of the market
If there's one segment that defines Manhattan's current moment, it's the sub-$3M market. It accounted for over 80% of all condo and co-op contracts signed in May, and the growth numbers are striking across every price band. It also shows a marked shift in buyer activity.
| Price Range | Contracts | YoY Change |
| Under $1M | 502 | +8% |
| $1M-$2M | 311 | +13% |
| $2M-$3M | 152 | +16% |
To understand why, look at the rental market. Manhattan rents are at record highs across every bedroom type and visible rental vacancy has fallen to roughly 1.5%, the lowest level in more than six years. When a well-qualified renter is already paying close to what ownership would cost, and there's virtually nothing available to lease anyway, the motivation shifts toward ownership. Buying isn't just a financial decision anymore; for many, it's the only reliable path to stable housing in the city.
That dynamic is showing up clearly in buyer behavior. Negotiability is disciplined: the average discount off last asking price across May closings was just 2.3%. Co-ops were even tighter, about 30% of co-op contracts closed above the asking price, compared to roughly 10% a year ago. Buyers in this range still care about value, but with so little inventory available, well-priced listings aren't leaving much room for negotiation.
$3M–$5M: another growth story
While most attention has focused on what's happening at the very top and very bottom of the market, the $3M–$5M segment quietly posted the strongest annual growth of any tier in May with contracts up 35% year-over-year. This growth reflects a real wave of move-up activity, concentrated Downtown and Uptown, from buyers who have built equity over the past few years and are now ready to trade up.
That move-up activity has a ripple effect. When buyers in the $3M–$5M range transact, they free up inventory below them and confirm confidence in the broader market. It's one reason negotiating leverage in that range is quite limited; demand is genuine and supply is not abundant.
Above $5M: scarcity as a floor
At the top of the market, the story is more nuanced but not nearly as alarming as some headlines imply. Yes, contracts above $5M ticked down about 5% year-over-year in May. But they still ran 10% above the historical average for the month which is a reminder that "down from last year" and "soft" are not the same thing when last year was strong.
Active listings above $5M have now declined annually for 22 consecutive months. In May, there were just 874 available units, the lowest May count in twelve years. When inventory is that constrained, even a modest pullback in discretionary demand doesn't translate into falling prices.
Average days on market in this tier dropped to around 131, down by roughly three months compared to a year ago. What that reflects is a pruning of the long-lingering listings that used to push the average up.
The pied-à-terre tax: a variable, not a verdict
The new pied-à-terre tax has generated significant anxiety in the luxury conversation, and some of that anxiety is warranted, particularly for international buyers and those purchasing purely as an investment vehicle. But the early data is more reassuring than the commentary might suggest.
In the six weeks following the April announcement, 133 contracts were signed above $5M, about 5% more than the same period a year earlier. The $15M–$25M bracket was up roughly 38% in that window, which was the biggest surprise. Only the ultra-prime $25M+ tier, where the tax hits hardest on a dollar basis, came in flat.
The more telling signal may be in foot traffic in the new development sector rather than contracts: interest below $5M increased after the announcement, while showings above $5M declined. That suggests some discretionary high-end buyers are pausing to recalculate rather than committing, which is a rational response to a new cost variable. Some pied-à-terre owners will likely sell. Others will rent their units to qualify for an exemption or simply absorb the cost and adjust their search parameters. Manhattan has absorbed bigger shocks than this and come back stronger each time.
New development: a supply problem, not a demand problem
New development sales look soft at first glance running about 15% below the ten-year average across April and May but the shortfall is almost entirely on the supply side. We're at the lowest new development inventory levels in more than a decade, and where developers have product to sell, it's selling. A good example is 200 West 88th Street on the Upper West Side, the newest Robert A.M. Stern-designed building developed by Nortco. In any market, a project like that would generate strong demand but in this one, the scarcity of new development availability will amplify its success considerably once it starts selling.
The $5M+ new development segment is a bright spot, with contract activity up around 15% year-over-year in April and May. Standout projects like The Flatiron Building conversion, One High Line, Sixteen Fifth Avenue, and 15 & 35 Hudson Yards continue to attract buyers who are prioritizing design, amenities, and long-term asset quality and are willing to pay for it.
What this means going into summer
For sellers, this is an environment that rewards preparation. Buyers at every level are scrutinizing carrying costs more carefully than they were two or three years ago. That's just the reality of higher mortgage rates and new tax variables. But when a property is priced accurately and presented well, the market is capable of delivering strong, fast outcomes.
For buyers, especially in the sub-$3M and $3M–$5M ranges, the approach is shifting. Waiting for a significant discount may mean chasing a target that keeps moving: rents are at records, rental vacancy is near zero, and nothing in the supply picture suggests a meaningful inventory buildup on the horizon. The market will continue digesting the pied-à-terre tax and adjusting to interest rate realities. But for those who have the financial footing to buy now, the case for waiting is getting harder to make.
FAQ - Your Questions Answered
Is now a good time to sell in Manhattan? Yes, particularly if you price accurately from the start. Well-priced listings are moving faster than they have in years. Days on market are down roughly 9% year-over-year and sellers who come in at the right number are seeing strong outcomes. Those who push the market are finding that overpricing costs more than it gains.
Should I wait until fall to list? The traditional logic of holding off until after summer is harder to justify this year. Contract activity in May was the strongest in three years, and the rental market is pushing more qualified buyers into ownership right now. Waiting may mean competing in a more crowded fall market rather than a less crowded one.
How is the pied-à-terre tax affecting the market? The early impact has been more psychological than transactional. In the six weeks after the April announcement, contracts above $5M were actually up about 5% year-over-year. Some discretionary buyers at the very top are pausing to recalculate, but the broader luxury market continues to transact and scarce inventory is providing a meaningful floor on values.
Is the market only strong at the lower end? No. While the sub-$3M segment is the most active, the $3M–$5M range posted the strongest annual growth of any tier in May, with contracts up 35% year-over-year. Even above $5M, volume is running above its historical average.
What's happening with new development? Supply, not demand, is the constraint. New development inventory is at its lowest level in over a decade, which means well-designed projects in good locations are well-positioned to perform particularly as buyers gravitate toward best-in-class product in a scarce environment.
Is it better to buy now or wait for prices to drop? Waiting for a significant discount is a difficult strategy in this market. Rental vacancy is near zero, rents are at record highs, and there's no meaningful inventory buildup on the horizon. For buyers with the financial footing to act, the case for waiting is getting harder to make.
Julia Boland is a Manhattan residential real estate specialist at Corcoran with over 25 years advising buyers and sellers on NYC co-ops, condos, and townhouses. She is the author of Buying Smart in NYC: An Insider's Guide to Condo & Co-op Buying (2026). Whether you're just starting your search or ready to make a move, Julia and The Boland Team are here to help. Reach out at thebolandteamnyc.com or call (848) 200-1452.
